Writers Den

Case Study 1: Forecasting

Using the Appendix 6-1, for this assignment, you will be providing a forecast of the number of clinic visits for November 2008 using the average change, confidence interval, average percent change, moving averages, and exponential smoothing forecasting methods. Use the Internet to research at least two (2) examples of the forecasting methods being used in health services organizations.

Write a two to three (2-3) page paper in which you:

1. Explain each step in the forecasting process for each method.

2. Provide a brief summary of your researched health services organizations implementing the forecasting methods.

3. Provide a forecast of the number of clinic visits for November 2008 using each method of the forecasting process.

4. Conclude which forecasting method provides the best forecast, and provide a rationale for your conclusion.

Your assignment must follow these formatting requirements:

· Be typed, double spaced, using Times New Roman font (size 12), with one-inch margins on all sides; citations and references must follow APA or school-specific format. Check with your professor for any additional instructions.

· Include a cover page containing the title of the assignment, the student’s name, the professor’s name, the course title, and the date. The cover page and the reference page are not included in the required assignment page length.

Appendix 6-1 Visit Volume for Northern College Health Services

	Month	Visits to Health Services
2005	Jan	21	2007	Jan	32
	Feb	19		Feb	34
	Mar	16		Mar	39
	Apr	20		Apr	42
	May	15		May	41
	Jun	18		Jun	21
	July	16		July	24
	Aug	14		Aug	28
	Sept	18		Sept	47
	Oct	25		Oct	45
	Nov	30		Nov	46
	Dec	16		Dec	44
2006	Jan	22	2008	Jan	39
	Feb	26		Feb	41
	Mar	31		Mar	34
	Apr	39		Apr	39
	May	44		May	38
	Jun	17		Jun	19
	July	22		July	28
	Aug	18		Aug	29
	Sept	27		Sept	37
	Oct	33		Oct	39
	Nov	29
	Dec	33