Our reading this week
emphasizes the role of demand management in creating a coordinated flow of
demand across the supply chain. Experience shows that selecting the best method
of estimating demand will vary with the maturity of the business and the data available.
In a four- to five-page paper (excluding title and references pages) address
the following:
1. A
start-up alternative fuel automobile company has a first year market forecast
of 1000 units. Identify the forecasting model that is in use here and explain
why it is the obvious choice.
2. During
its first three full years of operation the automobile company had actual sales
of:
· Year
One: 800 units
· Year
Two: 1200 units
· Year
Three: 2000 units
· Using
a simple three year moving average, calculate the predicted demand for Year
Four. Explain your reasoning.
3. The
sales department expects the growth in Year Four to more closely resemble the
average growth experienced in the last two years. Predict the number of units
expected in Year Four. Discuss whether you would recommend this quantity as the
manufacturing plan or the quantity found using the simple three year moving
average in step two and why.
4. In
Year Three, one fourth of the production was sold in China. The marketing
department has just learned of a new tax that will be imposed on all luxury
imports into China beginning in Year Four. It is expected that this will
decrease sales to China by 50%. Apply this market intelligence to the simple three
year moving average method discussed in step two and recalculate the predicted
demand for Year Four. Explain how you arrived at your answer.
Your paper must be
formatted according to APA style
